Steel Market Monthly Roundup — April 2026

April 2026 saw a surge in Indian steel prices with five rounds of mill hikes, pushing HRC to a 28‑month high (~₹64,000‑₹64,500/t) and primary rebar above ₹61,000/t, driven by strong demand, NMDC’s 11.1% iron‑ore increase, and tight supply. The market remains bullish into May despite marginal safeguard duty reduction, with expectations of further price moves, continued restocking, and watch points including potential additional mill hikes, NCDEX Steel Long levels, and global demand signals.

Month at a Glance

Metric	Start of April	End of April	Change
India HRC (ex-Mumbai, trade)	~₹55,500–56,500/t	~₹64,000–64,500/t	+₹5,500–8,000/t (28-month high)
India Primary Rebar (Mumbai)	₹58,500–59,500/t	₹61,000–61,500/t	+₹3,000/t (April hikes)
India CRC	~₹60,000/t	₹65,000–68,000/t	+₹4,500–5,000/t
NCDEX Steel Long	₹44,680	₹45,480	+₹800 (52-wk high zone)
US HRC (CME)	~$1,049/t	~$1,100/t (intraweek peak)	+$50/t (27-month high)
Shanghai Rebar (SHFE)	~CNY 3,406/t	~CNY 3,097–3,133/t	−CNY 270/t (China softening)
Iron Ore (NMDC Lump)	₹4,770/t	₹5,300/t	+11.1% (Apr 5 hike)
Coking Coal (Aus HCC)	~$222/t	~$227/t	+$5/t (+2.5% MoM)
BigMint India Steel Index	Multi-month high	3-year high	+3.4% w-o-w peak surge

April 2026 was a runaway month for Indian steel. Mills delivered five rounds of price hikes through the month, taking HRC to a 28-month high of ~₹64,000–64,500/t and primary rebar past ₹61,000/t in Mumbai. The BigMint India Steel Index hit a 3-year high, surging 3.4% week-on-week — the steepest weekly move in recent memory.

The rally was powered by a rare alignment: NMDC's 11.1% iron ore price hike on April 5, persistent scrap and LNG tightness from the lingering Middle East conflict, record FY26 output at Tata Steel and SAIL with no slack to release into the spot market, and aggressive Q1 FY27 restocking by infra and construction buyers ahead of monsoon.

Globally, US HRC hit a 27-month high of ~$1,100/t while China's SHFE rebar drifted lower — meaning India's premium pricing now sits well above import parity, even after the safeguard duty stepped down from 12% to 11.5% on April 21. Imports remain uncompetitive.

The Bharat Steel 2026 Summit (Apr 16–17, Bharat Mandapam) anchored the policy narrative around the 300 MT-by-2030 capacity target, with India–Russia steel cooperation talks, three green hydrogen pilots, and a Ministry of Mines low-grade iron ore pricing reform reinforcing the structural growth story.

Bottom line: Bullish bias intact into May. Lock in HRC below ₹64,000/t and primary rebar below ₹61,500/t where available. Buyer resistance is building, but input-cost push and tight supply leave limited downside before monsoon.

Top Story: Five Rounds of Mill Hikes

April marked the most aggressive price-action month in the post-pandemic cycle. Tata Steel, JSW, SAIL, JSPL, and AMNS India delivered cumulative HRC hikes of ₹5,500–6,000/t and rebar hikes of ~₹3,000/t across five rounds:

Apr 1–5 — Tata raised HRC by ₹2,500/t and CRC by ₹2,500/t; plates +₹2,000/t. Primary rebar hiked up to ₹2,000/t. NMDC iron ore lump up 11.1% to ₹5,300/t.
Apr 7–10 — IF steel prices surged day-on-day; AMNS India raised non-coated flats ₹1,500/t and coated steel ₹2,000/t.
Apr 12–14 — Total April rebar hikes hit ~₹3,000/t. HRC at 3-year high; primary rebar at ₹61,000–61,500/t Mumbai.
Apr 15–18 — Mills targeting HR coil at ₹64,500/t; CRC headed to ₹68,000/t. Cumulative April HRC revision ~₹5,500/t.
Apr 19–21 — Final round of ₹500–1,000/t before safeguard duty step-down on Apr 21. HRC trade prices hit 28-month high.

Despite elevated pricing, rebar demand stayed resilient — buyers actively front-loaded purchases ahead of further hikes and the safeguard duty transition.

Price Action

Domestic — India

HRC moved from ~₹56,000/t at the start of the month to ~₹64,000–64,500/t by month-end — up roughly ₹8,000/t (+14%), with HRC now trading at a ~1% premium to import parity (incl. safeguard duty), versus a 4% discount in late March.
CRC surged to ₹65,000–68,000/t, up ₹4,500–5,000/t MoM.
Primary rebar (Fe 550D) rallied to ₹61,000–61,500/t in Mumbai; secondary (Fe 500D) at ₹49,500–50,500/t in Raipur. BF–IF spread widened to ~₹10,000/t — the widest in over a year.
GP/PPGI indices surged; HR plate at ₹62,800/t.

Global

US HRC hit a 27-month high of ~$1,100/t (Apr 16), with CME contracts settling $1,046–1,084/t. World Steel pegs the global average at $625/t for 2026 vs $600/t in 2025.
Shanghai Rebar (SHFE) softened to ~CNY 3,097–3,133/t as China demand stayed weak (–1.5% contraction expected). Global steel demand growth: just 0.3%.
Iron ore CFR China ~$106.85/t (–0.24% w-o-w); coking coal (Aus HCC) ~$227/t (+2.48% MoM); Fitch forecasts $190/t for 2026.

Futures

NCDEX Steel Long held the ₹44,680–45,480 zone — the upper end of its 52-week range (₹38,150–₹45,480) — confirming a structurally bullish backdrop. Trading volume remained thin but positioning stayed long-biased through the month.

Demand Highlights

FY26 finished steel consumption rose 7% to 164 MT; crude steel output jumped 10.7% to 168.4 MT. Finished steel exports surged 36.6% YoY to 6.6 MT — India is now firmly a net steel exporter.

Key demand drivers in April:

Q1 FY27 restocking cycle in full swing — construction, railways, renewables, and auto leading the charge.
Pre-monsoon construction window sustaining rebar order books — buyers price-insensitive on near-term supply.
Budget FY27 capex of ₹12.2 lakh crore (+11.4% YoY) flowing into roads, railways, water (Jal Jeevan Mission), and renewables.
World Steel Association projects India steel demand +7.4% in 2026 — fastest among major economies; ICRA sees 9–10% in FY27.
National Steel Policy 2025 unveiled — targets 400 MT crude steel capacity by 2035–36, requiring ~₹17 trillion ($183 B) in capex.
TMT bar demand surging on infra push; primary TMT near ₹61,000/t with no demand fatigue.

Supply Dynamics

Tata Steel posts record FY26 crude steel output at 23.48 Mt (+8% YoY). SAIL posts record FY26 sales at 20.14 MT (+11.5% YoY) with crude output at all-time high of 19.43 MT and exports up 162%.

Key supply developments:

Imports collapsed ~31.7% in FY26 on the 12% safeguard duty; Nepal's steel exports to India plunged 77% in the first 8 months of FY26.
Safeguard duty stepped down from 12% to 11.5% effective Apr 21, 2026 — marginal relief, but global HRC at 27-month highs means imports remain uncompetitive.
Major mills took maintenance breaks in April, tightening already-thin supply.
Ferrous scrap and LNG shortages from the residual Middle East conflict squeezed secondary mills; small IF-based units in west India running below capacity.
AMNS India laid the foundation stone for its new steel plant in Andhra Pradesh (Mar 23) — a major capacity expansion milestone.
Tata Steel ramping EAF operations in north India, tightening local scrap availability.
Three green hydrogen steel pilots approved (~$42M) under the National Green Hydrogen Mission — Matrix Gas, Simplex Castings, and SAIL.

Policy & Macro Highlights

Event / Policy	Date	Impact
NMDC iron ore price hike (+11.1%)	Apr 5	Direct input-cost push; lump ₹5,300/t, fines ₹4,500/t
Bharat Steel 2026 Summit	Apr 16–17	300 MT-by-2030 target reaffirmed; global partnerships
India–Russia steel cooperation talks	Apr 16	CBAM mitigation, coking coal supply, sector integration
Safeguard duty step-down (12% → 11.5%)	Apr 21	Marginal; imports still uncompetitive at global HRC ~$1,100/t
Ministry of Mines low-grade iron ore reform	Apr 2026	Tiered pricing improves viability for secondary mills
3 Green Hydrogen Steel pilots approved	April	~$42M for Matrix Gas, Simplex Castings, SAIL
National Steel Policy 2025	April	400 MT capacity by 2035–36; ~₹17T capex roadmap
Rashmi Group – Africa steel deal	April	$1B investment in African industrial steel
CCI price-collusion probe overhang	Ongoing	Regulatory risk on Tata / JSW / SAIL pricing

Producer Watch

Tata Steel — Record FY26 output 23.48 Mt (+8% YoY). Three rounds of HRC/CRC hikes through April. HSBC reaffirmed Buy with revised target ₹250.
JSW Steel — Largest single hike of ~₹750/t on HRC for mid-cycle deliveries; Morgan Stanley expects ₹6,000/t NSR expansion in Q4.
SAIL — Record FY26 sales 20.14 MT, output 19.43 MT, exports +162%. Across-the-board hikes on flats. Expected ~₹6,500/t NSR expansion (MS).
JSPL — Q3 FY26 net profit fell ~80% YoY on weak prices and 43% input cost jump; April recovery driven by Q4 mill hikes. MS sees ~₹3,000/t NSR gain.
AMNS India — New AP plant foundation laid (Mar 23). Raised non-coated flats ₹1,500/t and coated steel ₹2,000/t in April.
Secondary producers — Margins squeezed by high energy and billet costs, but secondary TMT firm at ₹49,500–52,500/t on tight scrap.

Key Drivers & Macro Context

Bullish

✅ Five rounds of mill hikes delivered through April with no demand fatigue
✅ NMDC iron ore +11.1% locks in higher cost floor for mills
✅ Tight supply — record output already absorbed, scrap & LNG shortages persist
✅ Record govt capex (₹12.2L Cr) + ₹2L Cr private highway pipeline
✅ Safeguard duty step-down only marginal (0.5pp); imports still uncompetitive
✅ National Steel Policy 2025 — 400 MT capacity target signals long-cycle demand
✅ Q1 FY27 restocking + pre-monsoon construction window

Bearish / Risks

⚠️ Buyer resistance building at ₹64,000+/t HRC and ₹61,500+/t rebar
⚠️ China softening — SHFE rebar down ~CNY 270/t; global demand growth just 0.3%
⚠️ CCI price-collusion probe overhang on majors
⚠️ Trump 25% steel/aluminium tariff plan adds global trade uncertainty
⚠️ Capacity overhang — 80–85 MT additions planned over FY26–31 (ICRA flag)
⚠️ Monsoon ahead — seasonal demand softens June–September
⚠️ Middle East de-escalation could ease freight/energy and temper the rally

What to watch in May

Round 6 of mill hikes — likely if oil and coking coal stay firm
Post-Bharat Steel 2026 policy follow-throughs — green steel mandate (26%) operationalisation, CBAM mitigation moves
NCDEX Steel Long — break above ₹45,480 (52-wk high) would confirm next leg up; failure signals consolidation
China SHFE rebar direction — sustained weakness below CNY 3,000/t could redirect Asian flows toward India
Pre-monsoon demand signals from infra, real estate, and railways tenders
Coking coal & iron ore trajectory — Fitch sees both easing into H2 2026
Safeguard duty review — any further changes ahead of Year 2 cycle